Latest Methane Anomalies (off the chart) with Expert discussion

December anomaly is 14ppb higher than 2010. This means the methane must be up at 1854ppb, off the chart

AIRS 2011 / 12

TerryM: It is the facts that are alarming, not the messaging.

Compare this with 2010 / 12

AIRS 2010 / 12

Here are more plottings of the december month, AIRS data 2006-2011 (click an image to enlarge):

And now look at the current emission “long term trend”

800.000 years Icecore Greenhouse Gas evidence

Expert discussion

December anomaly is 14ppb higher than 2010. This means the methane must be up at 1854ppb, off the chart.

The open waters are also making a significant contribution. 2500% supersaturation over the arctic is not trivial.

The jump started in July and now soars to a new record high that is quite a bit higher than before. Clearly a “new” source or the ESAS just was a stronger source to feed the Northern Hemisphere.

It is also no wonder the arctic has suffered amplified warming with these gases being strongest and most concentrated up there. This is also the hardest place to keep track of SATs which I hope soon they deploy a new satelitte soley for arctic temperature. That can reach the pole or closer at a more accurate depiction than the current satelittes.

Anyways. Is methane only coming out of the Laptev and ESB or also the Chuchki, Kara, and Barents?

2011 like 2007 was a bit off the charts…but the length of time that the Laptev was exposed to max sun was absurd. This still though is with ice using up most of the incoming solar energy until early to mid July.

Just so people don’t carry away the wrong impression, there has been no long term warming trend over the past 10k years. The natural peak temp of the Holocene period occured about 8,000 years ago and slowly declined over the following 6,000 years. The temperature began to rise about 2,000 years ago with the big jump occuring over the past 150 years which has returned temp to near what it was during the Holocene Thermal Maximum 8,000 years ago.[1]

Yes it should take hundreds of years to destablise the deeply buried hydrates, but what about exasperating those already outgasing and those potentially already close to doing so?

Just a couple decades ago. These areas only had a short window at the end of the summer of open water, And even then the water was still filled with ice floes and cold. Before the early to mid 80s it was nearly ice covered to some extent all year or only open for less than a month. There is 500,000-1,000,000 mil km2 of water area that used to see a very small amount of direct w/m2 maybe 30-50 watts per year. Now these areas are getting 150-200 w/m2. This is very new. This is concerning to me.

This is pretty simple science IMO. That seems to me that melting would be accelerated by more than a factor of 2 because the amount of solar energy reaching these areas has gone up by hundreds of percent in some cases on a year to year basis. American Wx

[1] Regarding the Holocene Thermal Maximum “However, orbital forcing would predict maximum climate response several thousand years earlier than those observed in the Northern Hemisphere. This delay may be a result of the continuing changes in climate as the Earth emerged from the last glacial period and related to ice feedbacks. It should also be noted that different sites often show climate changes at somewhat different times and lasting for different durations. At some locations, climate changes associated with this event may have begun as early as 11,000 years ago, or persisted until 4,000 years before present. As noted above, the warmest interval in the far south significantly preceded warming in the North.” Wikipedia

Related

Snow, Water, Ice, Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA)

Dr Lovelock explains the Daisyworld model.

“Just the melting of all the floating ice in the arctic ocean, will add as much heat to the earth, as all the Co-2 we put in the atmosphere to date.” Dr. James Lovelock

Estimating the Global Radiative Impact of the Sea-Ice-Albedo Feedback in the Arctic
“..a more realistic ice-free-summer scenario (no ice for one month, decreased ice at all other times of the year) results in a forcing of about 0.3 W m−2, similar to present-day anthropogenic forcing caused by halocarbons. The potential for changes in cloud cover as a result of the changes in sea ice makes the evaluation of the actual forcing that may be realized quite uncertain, since such changes could overwhelm the forcing caused by the sea-ice loss itself, if the cloudi- ness increases in the summertime.” Source

Methane Anomalies (without considing december AIRS Methane Anomaly 2011)

Yurganov: ..after 2007 new growing source(s) caused a new growth of CH4. The nature of these sources is a matter of debates.
The current rate of CH4 increase (~ 20 Tg per year for the global troposphere) seems to be constant between 2007 and September, 2011. This increase does not look catastrophic: in early 1980 methane was increasing with a rate 40-50 Tg/year and the rate decreased to zero by 2000. A permanent monitoring is necessary to detect a potential large surge as promptly as possible. Yurganow London CH4 Anomalies discussion

Satellite observes spatiotemporal variations in mid-upper tropospheric methane over China

Before 2007, CH4 mixing ratio was nearly stable. The average mixing ratio during the last 6 years over major northern hemispheric countries is similar. However, there has been a significant increase in tropospheric CH4 concentrations after 2007 in most northern hemispheric areas, with slightly larger increases over China. EurekAlert

Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf – an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova

Climate Progress Arctic Methane Outgassing On The East Siberian Shelf: A Primer Plus an Interview with Dr. Natalia Shakhova

[Club of Rome] Implications of Arctic Permafrost Thaw

China Warns of “Extremely Grim Ecological and Environmental Conditions” From Global Warming “Chinese Scientists: Climate Change Threatens Food Security“

Key Findings + Background Science = SWIPA Chapter 5 · Changing Permafrost and its Impacts (80 Mb download)